Risk, Uncertainty, and the Limits of Market Pricing
Modern finance rests on a simple premise: risk can be measured, priced, and transferred. Yet the boundary between risk and pure uncertainty is not fixed. What markets price as risk today may reveal itself as uncertainty tomorrow, when regimes shift, correlations break, or structural change outpaces historical data. In this SFI Roundup, five experts from academia and practice examine that moving boundary. They discuss why risk premia exist, how delegated investment shapes risk-taking, why diversification is both indispensable and imperfect, and how vulnerabilities migrate toward the least transparent corners of the system. Their exchange points to a system that prices and manages familiar risks with growing sophistication, yet continues to grapple with those that resist measurement.
The latest SFI Roundup offers practical and research-based insights into these issues from Yves Bonzon, Group Chief Investment Officer and Member of the Global Wealth Management Committee at Julius Bär; SFI Prof. Pierre Collin-Dufresne, Professor of Finance at EPFL, the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Lausanne; Renato Flückiger, Chief Investment Officer at Valiant Bank; Dr. Pascal Froidevaux, Discretionary Portfolio Manager and Managing Director at Union Bancaire Privée; and SFI Prof. Amit Goyal, Professor of Finance at the University of Lausanne.
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