N°22-95: Empirical Asset Pricing via Ensemble Gaussian Process Regression

We introduce an ensemble learning method based on Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) for predicting conditional expected stock returns given stock-level and macro-economic information. Our ensemble learning approach significantly reduces the computational complexity inherent in GPR inference and lends itself to general online learning tasks. We conduct an empirical analysis on a large cross-section of US stocks from 1962 to 2016. We find that our method dominates existing machine learning models statistically and economically in terms of out-of-sample R-squared and Sharpe ratio of prediction-sorted portfolios. Exploiting the Bayesian nature of GPR, we introduce the mean-variance optimal portfolio with respect to the predictive uncertainty distribution of the expected stock returns. It appeals to an uncertainty averse investor and significantly dominates the equal- and value-weighted prediction-sorted portfolios, which outperform the S&P 500.